Geopolitics of the Energy Transformation. The Hydrogen Factor

IRENA report on the geopolitics of the Energy Transformation

Cross-border trading of hydrogen will increase in the 2030s, at pace with the cost-competitiveness of green hydrogen. IRENA envisages that two-thirds of green hydrogen production in 2050 would be used locally, and one-third traded across borders. Ammonia is the most promising vector for hydrogen transport via ship. Half of 410mn t of hydrogen is expected to be moved as ammonia by 2050.

Ammonia Technology Roadmap

International Energy Agency

Towards more sustainable nitrogen fertiliser production. Scenario analysis to explore three possible futures for ammonia production. The Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario describes a trajectory for the ammonia industry that is compatible with reaching net zero emissions globally for the energy system by 2050.

A Pathway to Decarbonise the Shipping


Key messages include:

  • The sector’s decarbonisation strategy must involve a combination of energy efficiency and renewable fuels.
  • Renewable e-ammonia will play a pivotal role; where 183 million tonnes of renewable ammonia for international shipping alone will be needed by 2050 - a comparable amount to today’s ammonia global production.
  • In the next decades renewable fuels will become cost competitive

Impact of grid connectivity on cost and location of green ammonia production: Australia as a case study

Energy Environ. Sci., 2021, 14, 6655

MILP model to optimise the production cost of green ammonia in Australia. Costs are economically justified based on buying and selling electricity from the grid. A grid connection can reduce the minimum Levelised Cost of Ammonia (LCOA) by almost 11%.

UK Hydrogen Strategy

HM Government

The role of hydrogen in meeting net zero and UK ambitions for a thriving hydrogen economy by 2030

Ammonia: zero-carbon fertiliser, fuel and energy store

The Royal Society - Policy Briefing

A concise summary of Ammonia properties, decarbonisation of ammonia production, applications and opportunities.

Green hydrogen cost reduction: Scaling up electrolysers to meet the 1.5℃ climate goal

International Renewable Energy Agency

Identifies key strategies to reduce investment costs for electrolysis plants by 80% in the long term.

The future of hydrogen

International Energy Agency

Recommendations to scale up hydrogen, considering green ammonia generation in Australia and Africa (p.82), production costs (p.60) and global potential.

Shipping sun and wind to Belgium is key in climate neutral economy

Hydrogen Import Coalition

Compares global shipping options, including from Australia, Chile and Oman. Ammonia is the least cost option in all cases, reaching €55-75/MWh by 2050.

Optimization of green ammonia distribution systems for intercontinental energy transport


Models global energy flows with optimised location of ammonia terminals

Opportunities for Australia from Hydrogen Exports

Acil Allen Consulting for Arena

Sets out technical and commercial opportunities for Australia to generate, store and export green ammonia.